* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/05/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 34 31 29 23 20 18 21 21 20 22 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 34 31 29 23 20 18 21 21 20 22 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 35 33 30 28 26 25 24 24 23 23 SHEAR (KTS) 3 1 2 2 3 8 3 6 8 12 7 12 14 SHEAR DIR 211 223 200 96 1 43 88 95 104 149 163 149 174 SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 114 114 111 112 113 115 118 117 117 118 116 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 50 45 45 42 45 48 44 40 37 36 32 29 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 16 15 16 13 13 12 12 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 25 35 35 32 32 35 35 55 59 87 93 90 97 200 MB DIV 2 10 4 -13 -16 3 -26 -13 7 -9 29 4 59 LAND (KM) 1213 1235 1257 1295 1328 1394 1468 1536 1619 1650 1658 1673 1657 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.7 18.4 18.1 17.7 17.5 17.4 17.4 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 122.2 122.5 122.7 123.2 123.7 124.4 125.1 125.7 126.4 126.6 126.6 126.8 127.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 5 4 3 3 4 2 1 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -6. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -16. -18. -20. -18. -20. -20. -19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -17. -20. -22. -19. -19. -20. -18. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/05/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/05/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED