* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/05/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 64 70 75 77 74 72 70 67 62 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 64 70 75 77 74 72 70 67 62 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 56 60 66 69 70 69 67 64 61 56 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 11 8 11 21 18 19 18 19 15 18 17 SHEAR DIR 107 126 120 118 130 134 147 142 154 150 121 165 201 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 150 150 150 150 147 147 145 141 137 130 124 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -51.4 -51.7 -50.9 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 11 10 10 12 9 10 8 9 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 67 66 68 64 64 59 61 65 68 67 67 67 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 14 14 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 53 61 72 63 69 73 63 88 103 108 100 78 200 MB DIV 45 68 68 36 30 55 29 55 48 66 49 50 26 LAND (KM) 309 323 341 348 342 363 407 427 469 517 524 436 367 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.4 18.2 19.2 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 101.6 102.2 102.7 103.3 103.9 105.1 106.2 107.3 108.4 109.5 110.5 111.4 112.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 25. 30. 32. 30. 28. 25. 22. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 14. 19. 25. 30. 32. 29. 27. 25. 22. 17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/05/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/05/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED