* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 10/05/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 39 43 55 64 66 68 69 70 77 78 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 39 43 55 64 66 68 69 58 40 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 34 36 38 41 44 40 32 28 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 16 14 10 22 11 11 11 11 7 10 22 SHEAR DIR 77 60 64 66 67 45 52 44 72 79 161 195 229 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 151 152 154 153 152 152 153 158 161 166 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 10 7 10 8 9 7 9 5 700-500 MB RH 82 81 83 81 79 76 78 76 76 79 74 77 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 11 11 14 15 13 13 13 13 16 19 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 24 23 18 20 26 34 46 44 52 57 64 200 MB DIV 51 68 53 37 49 65 46 57 53 46 50 51 53 LAND (KM) 203 199 198 181 170 156 189 175 89 36 -7 -124 -72 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.3 15.0 15.9 17.2 19.2 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 89.6 90.2 90.8 91.4 91.9 92.9 94.0 95.4 96.9 98.6 100.6 102.6 104.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 12 14 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 7. 4. 5. 5. 5. 9. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 25. 34. 37. 41. 43. 44. 50. 51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 14. 18. 30. 39. 41. 43. 44. 45. 52. 53. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 10/05/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 10/05/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED