* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL962008 10/05/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 29 37 43 48 51 53 53 52 49 V (KT) LAND 20 24 26 28 32 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 24 25 26 27 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 10 12 13 18 23 25 24 33 42 45 52 SHEAR DIR 194 221 250 256 250 256 241 246 237 237 235 234 243 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.6 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 159 155 152 148 148 155 162 171 170 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 159 151 146 141 135 135 144 150 156 152 153 148 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 7 10 10 11 9 10 8 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 66 63 65 63 64 62 63 61 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 35 30 26 33 46 -9 -7 11 26 37 52 59 200 MB DIV 31 26 40 34 34 37 25 39 33 37 63 61 58 LAND (KM) -24 27 100 134 109 -4 -121 -319 -226 -52 -36 -96 -193 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.9 21.5 21.7 22.1 22.8 24.0 25.2 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 91.1 92.3 93.5 94.5 95.5 97.2 98.9 100.9 103.2 105.3 106.7 107.1 106.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 10 8 9 10 11 9 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 25. 31. 36. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -6. -11. -15. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. 32. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 9. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. 32. 29. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 10/05/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 10/05/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY