* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/05/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 29 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 15 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 29 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 30 29 26 24 22 21 20 20 18 17 SHEAR (KTS) 1 2 5 5 8 9 12 12 13 22 17 25 18 SHEAR DIR 65 131 63 42 43 90 66 105 137 170 161 156 138 SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.4 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 115 115 114 114 117 117 119 122 125 126 126 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 45 44 44 45 45 43 38 37 31 30 31 29 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 15 15 16 14 14 10 9 11 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 32 37 40 40 40 36 44 65 64 89 82 98 85 200 MB DIV 9 12 -7 -30 -29 1 -1 -13 -11 -21 -11 23 24 LAND (KM) 1245 1282 1319 1354 1388 1477 1546 1598 1621 1690 1797 1873 1957 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.7 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.2 17.8 17.6 17.5 17.1 16.5 16.3 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 122.5 122.9 123.2 123.7 124.2 125.0 125.5 126.0 126.2 126.7 127.5 128.3 129.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 4 4 3 2 2 4 4 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -9. -11. -8. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -13. -15. -22. -23. -21. -22. -23. -22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -5. -6. -12. -15. -23. -25. -21. -21. -22. -20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/05/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/05/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY