* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/05/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 67 72 79 83 81 76 71 65 61 55 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 67 72 79 83 81 76 71 65 61 55 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 58 61 64 69 72 72 70 67 63 58 51 SHEAR (KTS) 14 14 12 15 12 13 14 17 18 13 19 22 22 SHEAR DIR 106 122 127 130 125 138 147 145 141 146 174 178 199 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.3 26.4 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 150 150 148 146 143 142 137 127 120 118 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 11 11 10 9 8 8 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 61 56 56 59 61 63 68 63 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 14 13 11 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 64 64 56 55 74 60 63 90 93 98 66 83 200 MB DIV 61 61 46 43 60 22 39 33 45 19 82 46 31 LAND (KM) 384 394 388 396 411 438 458 506 558 563 456 401 351 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.9 19.4 20.6 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.4 104.0 104.6 105.1 106.3 107.5 108.6 109.6 110.9 112.3 113.0 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 7 9 8 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 433 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 23. 27. 26. 23. 19. 14. 9. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 17. 22. 29. 33. 31. 26. 21. 15. 11. 5. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/05/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/05/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED