* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 10/05/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 51 58 63 67 70 80 78 86 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 51 58 63 67 70 80 78 86 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 31 33 36 41 45 49 53 57 SHEAR (KTS) 16 18 13 11 12 12 2 6 12 15 7 13 10 SHEAR DIR 50 52 49 47 35 44 123 99 93 110 189 159 171 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 152 154 155 153 152 153 157 159 158 153 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 83 84 80 81 77 76 74 76 76 78 80 80 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 19 17 24 850 MB ENV VOR 13 18 20 21 20 22 37 57 71 82 84 92 93 200 MB DIV 63 56 37 58 62 23 41 62 78 59 80 52 73 LAND (KM) 180 173 174 156 147 159 201 120 95 101 76 122 260 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.4 16.3 17.6 19.0 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 89.2 90.0 90.7 91.4 92.1 93.5 95.0 96.8 98.8 101.0 103.5 106.1 108.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 11 13 14 13 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 12. 9. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 11. 15. 23. 31. 37. 42. 44. 54. 52. 60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 17. 26. 33. 38. 42. 45. 55. 53. 61. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 10/05/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 10/05/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY