* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL962008 10/06/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 34 40 45 49 50 50 48 45 41 V (KT) LAND 25 29 31 33 36 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 29 31 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 9 12 17 20 23 24 24 33 39 45 52 SHEAR DIR 220 241 248 250 242 252 241 256 248 249 245 254 259 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.7 30.1 30.1 29.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 157 153 150 146 150 157 164 171 170 165 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 156 149 143 139 134 137 145 150 154 150 147 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 10 12 9 12 7 11 5 10 4 9 700-500 MB RH 77 72 71 66 68 64 64 60 64 62 67 57 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 30 23 29 40 28 -20 -39 -48 -28 -46 -24 -12 200 MB DIV 25 28 21 25 42 13 26 4 24 14 13 18 28 LAND (KM) -11 46 124 125 73 -35 -174 -370 -201 -82 -141 -289 -518 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.2 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.2 23.2 24.5 25.8 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 91.7 92.9 94.0 95.0 95.9 97.6 99.4 101.4 103.5 105.3 105.8 105.1 103.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 9 8 9 10 9 8 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 20. 24. 25. 25. 23. 20. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 20. 24. 25. 25. 23. 20. 16. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 10/06/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 10/06/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY