* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/06/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 29 24 21 18 15 15 16 16 19 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 29 24 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 30 29 26 24 23 22 22 21 20 19 SHEAR (KTS) 1 4 8 11 12 7 10 11 20 17 22 21 19 SHEAR DIR 216 43 30 37 40 49 110 128 159 175 161 159 149 SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 116 116 116 117 116 117 120 120 119 122 124 126 126 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 44 42 42 41 41 39 37 35 31 31 31 27 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 16 15 13 12 12 10 10 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 33 44 43 45 44 39 43 67 74 100 100 112 92 200 MB DIV 13 -3 -19 -29 -5 -27 -21 0 -20 4 11 37 31 LAND (KM) 1284 1324 1364 1404 1442 1538 1644 1697 1703 1742 1812 1865 1934 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.5 18.3 18.3 18.2 17.9 17.4 17.2 17.3 17.0 16.5 16.4 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 122.8 123.2 123.5 124.0 124.5 125.5 126.4 126.9 127.1 127.3 127.7 128.3 129.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 1 1 2 3 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -20. -20. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -14. -17. -20. -20. -19. -19. -16. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/06/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/06/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY