* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/06/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 67 70 74 76 75 74 69 66 61 54 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 67 70 74 76 75 74 69 66 61 54 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 61 62 65 66 66 65 63 60 56 51 SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 17 13 19 20 17 10 14 9 8 20 29 SHEAR DIR 116 118 117 114 122 135 135 133 135 160 188 246 239 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.0 26.2 25.6 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 149 149 147 145 141 139 133 125 119 112 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.1 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 65 63 59 58 58 59 59 69 65 63 53 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 14 15 14 14 13 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 63 63 58 68 86 77 64 62 69 50 49 83 200 MB DIV 68 54 59 62 60 19 55 25 56 40 34 17 17 LAND (KM) 438 442 458 467 478 506 536 562 581 496 445 404 285 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.6 19.7 21.2 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.1 104.7 105.3 105.8 107.0 108.5 109.5 110.3 111.3 112.6 113.5 114.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 8 8 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 14. 11. 5. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 20. 19. 14. 11. 6. -1. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/06/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/06/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY