* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 10/06/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 42 50 56 60 64 67 75 79 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 42 50 56 60 64 67 75 79 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 36 41 47 SHEAR (KTS) 23 18 15 15 18 13 16 6 9 3 3 7 9 SHEAR DIR 62 68 53 56 42 32 58 113 84 85 107 159 163 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 149 151 152 153 152 151 150 153 157 157 156 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -51.6 -52.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 9 9 7 10 7 9 6 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 86 81 80 75 76 76 75 75 77 79 80 77 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 10 13 15 16 14 15 15 15 17 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 33 33 25 27 29 41 35 60 79 80 94 200 MB DIV 66 44 52 63 71 46 38 21 45 88 54 63 62 LAND (KM) 187 189 195 180 178 200 278 204 182 186 166 127 166 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.6 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.4 15.2 16.5 18.0 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 89.7 90.3 90.9 91.5 92.1 93.4 94.9 96.6 98.4 100.4 102.6 104.9 106.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 12 13 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 21. 27. 30. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 8. 9. 10. 9. 13. 14. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 15. 23. 28. 34. 39. 41. 48. 53. 57. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 10. 17. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 50. 54. 58. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 10/06/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 10/06/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY