* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL962008 10/06/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 46 52 56 58 58 56 51 46 V (KT) LAND 25 30 33 37 41 31 28 27 27 30 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 30 32 35 38 30 28 27 27 30 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 7 10 12 19 19 21 27 31 39 49 60 SHEAR DIR 257 267 243 235 251 246 253 252 266 266 252 250 257 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.5 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 155 151 150 148 154 161 170 171 171 172 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 153 146 141 139 138 143 150 159 156 156 154 138 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 11 12 10 11 10 9 8 9 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 75 70 65 66 68 65 67 64 71 70 65 58 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 17 22 21 47 17 3 -31 -24 -18 -31 -40 4 200 MB DIV 25 16 7 28 25 26 20 23 33 17 25 23 30 LAND (KM) -11 48 84 81 14 -143 -311 -260 -46 22 -44 -203 -501 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.9 21.7 23.1 24.6 26.3 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 92.3 93.4 94.4 95.4 96.3 98.3 100.4 102.7 104.9 106.6 107.2 106.6 104.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 9 9 10 10 11 11 9 8 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 18. 24. 29. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -7. -12. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 27. 31. 33. 33. 31. 26. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 27. 31. 33. 33. 31. 26. 21. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 10/06/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 10/06/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY