* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/06/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 30 24 23 19 19 21 21 21 23 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 30 24 23 19 19 21 21 21 23 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 33 32 29 27 26 25 24 23 22 20 SHEAR (KTS) 5 8 11 9 9 5 9 16 22 19 28 21 17 SHEAR DIR 66 46 34 67 102 97 146 152 163 151 147 147 142 SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 117 118 118 120 123 126 128 130 129 128 125 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 42 42 40 41 39 39 38 40 40 37 35 29 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 16 14 13 11 12 9 10 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 47 48 48 51 45 39 63 65 79 82 107 96 98 200 MB DIV -3 -15 -6 -1 -31 -13 12 -6 17 20 24 33 29 LAND (KM) 1308 1352 1395 1438 1482 1579 1678 1778 1870 1961 2020 2073 2060 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.4 18.2 18.1 17.9 17.4 16.9 16.2 15.7 15.3 15.4 15.7 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 123.0 123.4 123.8 124.3 124.7 125.5 126.3 126.9 127.6 128.4 129.3 130.3 130.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -4. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -11. -14. -14. -13. -15. -15. -14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -12. -16. -16. -14. -14. -14. -12. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/06/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/06/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY