* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/06/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 69 72 75 75 72 69 65 60 53 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 66 69 72 75 75 72 69 65 60 53 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 61 62 64 65 65 64 62 59 54 48 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 14 18 18 18 11 17 10 12 18 24 36 SHEAR DIR 105 110 110 113 124 127 134 140 130 163 200 233 235 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.6 26.9 26.1 25.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 149 149 147 145 142 139 132 124 121 125 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 62 65 59 66 65 72 66 65 56 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 62 66 66 69 80 83 83 66 61 62 42 24 39 200 MB DIV 61 47 59 62 32 56 52 22 31 38 21 32 4 LAND (KM) 452 449 453 464 478 516 529 562 598 502 406 313 137 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.6 20.0 21.8 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 103.6 104.1 104.6 105.2 105.8 107.2 108.4 109.5 110.5 111.5 112.4 112.9 113.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 14. 10. 4. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 20. 17. 14. 10. 5. -2. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/06/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/06/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY