* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 10/06/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 37 45 52 55 56 61 65 70 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 37 45 52 55 56 61 65 70 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 31 33 38 SHEAR (KTS) 18 15 17 17 17 13 20 15 14 12 7 6 7 SHEAR DIR 64 60 59 65 74 46 59 48 85 45 72 101 125 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 150 152 153 151 150 149 149 151 156 159 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 9 10 8 9 7 7 6 7 8 10 11 700-500 MB RH 83 79 75 75 75 74 78 78 82 79 82 77 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 13 13 15 13 12 14 15 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 26 23 19 20 24 30 36 36 26 31 42 31 74 200 MB DIV 40 28 43 49 48 43 43 84 58 72 74 60 52 LAND (KM) 161 164 171 164 166 217 308 357 325 286 216 125 33 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.4 14.6 16.1 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 89.8 90.3 90.8 91.3 91.8 93.0 94.2 95.3 96.6 98.1 99.7 101.1 102.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 9 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 7. 10. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 26. 30. 31. 36. 40. 44. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 27. 30. 31. 36. 40. 45. 46. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 10/06/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 10/06/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY