* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL962008 10/06/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 33 39 44 49 51 52 51 49 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 25 26 26 27 27 30 30 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 10 13 15 20 21 17 30 32 43 57 76 SHEAR DIR 244 221 219 244 235 241 266 256 265 252 256 246 252 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.1 29.8 30.5 31.0 31.0 31.2 29.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 141 142 145 154 166 172 171 171 171 166 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 131 132 135 144 156 171 171 171 171 152 127 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 11 12 10 9 12 9 12 7 11 5 9 4 700-500 MB RH 72 65 66 68 65 66 66 67 71 70 62 58 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 18 22 24 17 -7 -25 -32 -11 -10 -18 6 26 200 MB DIV 20 -1 13 15 10 37 1 21 1 23 13 47 64 LAND (KM) 62 69 51 -20 -91 -263 -281 -105 52 30 -58 -334 -594 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.3 22.4 23.9 25.4 27.5 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 93.7 94.7 95.7 96.7 97.6 99.7 102.0 104.2 106.3 107.5 107.7 106.0 103.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 10 8 10 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 30. 35. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -5. -9. -14. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 24. 26. 27. 26. 24. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 24. 26. 27. 26. 24. 19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 10/06/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 10/06/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY