* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/06/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 23 20 19 18 20 23 24 25 27 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 23 20 19 18 20 23 24 25 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 25 24 22 21 20 20 20 19 19 18 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 8 7 7 6 9 16 16 21 21 19 14 SHEAR DIR 30 33 34 48 47 107 143 163 170 151 161 166 189 SST (C) 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.9 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 111 112 113 115 117 120 125 127 129 130 129 126 122 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 42 39 42 40 40 39 42 42 42 43 39 32 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 12 13 12 11 11 12 11 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 52 48 46 42 51 55 75 79 97 84 81 200 MB DIV -11 -4 4 -17 -42 0 10 -12 0 20 32 35 33 LAND (KM) 1319 1355 1391 1451 1511 1603 1704 1769 1808 1846 1871 1881 1834 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.1 17.8 17.2 16.5 15.9 15.6 15.4 15.6 16.1 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 123.3 123.7 124.0 124.5 125.0 125.6 126.2 126.4 126.6 126.9 127.5 128.2 128.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 5 4 4 2 2 2 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -10. -10. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. -12. -10. -7. -6. -5. -3. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/06/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/06/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED