* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/06/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 63 65 70 71 74 73 70 66 62 56 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 63 65 70 71 74 73 70 66 62 56 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 58 59 62 65 67 68 68 66 62 57 SHEAR (KTS) 16 11 15 14 15 16 8 12 8 11 18 22 37 SHEAR DIR 110 90 107 119 112 124 122 137 182 192 233 218 240 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 151 151 150 150 151 148 144 139 136 138 146 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 65 65 65 66 70 69 66 64 57 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 63 61 70 79 84 85 68 55 59 57 33 36 41 200 MB DIV 56 60 54 36 21 68 22 29 13 31 10 19 2 LAND (KM) 455 468 485 499 518 543 570 617 551 461 378 275 112 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.4 16.2 17.2 18.2 19.4 20.6 22.1 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.9 105.4 106.0 106.6 108.0 109.2 110.5 111.7 112.4 112.7 112.7 112.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 7 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 16. 18. 18. 16. 11. 7. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 16. 19. 18. 15. 11. 7. 1. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/06/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/06/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED