* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * * INVEST EP922008 10/06/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 41 49 57 64 67 74 76 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 41 49 57 64 67 74 76 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 36 40 46 SHEAR (KTS) 16 20 17 14 10 15 8 12 5 11 8 8 13 SHEAR DIR 56 57 64 59 42 42 59 75 96 71 116 79 137 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 151 152 153 155 156 156 154 156 159 162 164 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 9 8 7 8 5 8 6 8 7 12 10 700-500 MB RH 80 76 75 77 77 77 79 79 78 81 80 76 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 10 11 13 14 14 16 16 18 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 24 19 23 33 39 45 52 44 39 38 56 64 83 200 MB DIV 17 41 48 52 47 29 46 83 81 71 66 85 94 LAND (KM) 169 150 135 143 156 166 204 290 255 229 195 169 146 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.8 15.8 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 89.2 89.6 89.9 90.3 90.7 91.8 93.1 94.5 96.2 98.0 99.7 101.4 103.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 4 4 5 6 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 13. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 16. 24. 32. 39. 42. 49. 51. 55. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 16. 24. 32. 39. 42. 49. 51. 55. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 10/06/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 10/06/08 12 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART