* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * MARCO AL132008 10/06/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 57 62 65 69 71 73 72 71 67 63 61 V (KT) LAND 45 52 57 62 49 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 53 60 65 53 36 30 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 10 8 11 18 14 12 10 16 15 19 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 244 256 241 238 264 266 267 283 288 274 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 140 140 141 142 145 144 144 144 143 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 126 127 126 127 127 128 126 125 125 124 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 11 9 12 11 9 7 8 8 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 69 61 63 67 64 69 62 68 66 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 3 1 3 3 -26 -16 5 38 30 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 13 7 1 34 11 12 -5 11 23 41 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 98 94 63 16 -30 -106 -178 -170 -153 -145 -113 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.9 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.5 95.1 95.7 96.3 96.8 97.7 98.5 98.6 98.6 98.7 98.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 2 1 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 20. 24. 26. 28. 27. 26. 22. 18. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 12. 17. 20. 24. 26. 28. 27. 26. 22. 18. 16. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132008 MARCO 10/06/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132008 MARCO 10/06/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY