* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * MARIE EP142008 10/06/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 15 18 19 19 21 V (KT) LAND 25 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 7 5 5 8 9 17 16 26 20 21 11 SHEAR DIR 31 13 27 46 58 149 174 168 160 150 159 151 160 SST (C) 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 108 110 111 114 116 120 125 126 128 129 127 124 120 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 40 43 40 42 39 38 41 41 39 38 36 32 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 13 13 10 11 10 9 11 10 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 53 57 48 57 47 56 78 93 104 104 72 200 MB DIV -7 0 -9 -44 -33 12 2 -3 13 21 35 30 9 LAND (KM) 1322 1359 1396 1452 1508 1616 1725 1788 1828 1865 1875 1880 1834 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.7 18.5 18.3 18.0 17.3 16.5 16.0 15.7 15.5 15.9 16.5 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 123.6 123.9 124.2 124.7 125.2 125.9 126.5 126.8 127.0 127.3 127.9 128.6 128.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 5 5 4 2 2 2 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -4. -6. -3. -4. -6. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -13. -13. -14. -14. -9. -8. -9. -9. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -7. -11. -11. -12. -14. -10. -7. -6. -6. -4. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP142008 MARIE 10/06/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142008 MARIE 10/06/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY