* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/06/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 69 73 76 77 77 74 71 65 60 52 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 69 73 76 77 77 74 71 65 60 52 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 65 67 68 72 74 74 74 72 67 62 56 SHEAR (KTS) 10 15 13 12 14 12 9 11 7 16 18 33 39 SHEAR DIR 103 109 121 119 130 141 135 150 172 208 209 215 220 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.3 27.1 27.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 150 150 150 149 145 141 136 134 139 151 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 60 64 60 60 62 62 65 62 63 59 58 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 16 17 16 15 14 13 13 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 61 68 78 82 83 78 62 59 51 49 31 27 48 200 MB DIV 50 44 36 18 37 34 20 25 18 25 2 30 38 LAND (KM) 463 481 501 523 532 575 632 609 548 456 355 220 60 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.8 16.7 17.6 18.5 19.8 21.3 22.8 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.6 106.2 106.9 107.5 108.9 110.3 111.5 112.4 112.9 113.0 112.7 112.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 7 8 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 14. 11. 6. 0. -8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 9. 13. 16. 17. 17. 14. 11. 5. 0. -8. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/06/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/06/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY