* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 10/06/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 36 44 54 60 65 71 78 81 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 36 44 54 60 65 71 78 46 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 34 38 30 28 SHEAR (KTS) 18 16 14 13 14 16 11 8 4 6 3 11 9 SHEAR DIR 61 54 45 34 27 43 40 102 52 126 219 108 155 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 150 151 151 154 157 156 155 158 160 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 9 7 8 6 7 8 9 11 11 700-500 MB RH 78 77 78 75 75 79 79 81 78 81 77 77 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 13 13 15 15 15 16 18 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 23 27 35 37 43 57 50 45 36 44 56 65 75 200 MB DIV 36 39 37 49 55 57 85 82 100 82 94 85 74 LAND (KM) 144 138 147 167 187 207 203 252 193 87 3 -72 -188 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.6 13.2 14.0 15.1 16.4 17.9 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 88.8 89.3 89.7 90.2 90.6 91.5 92.7 94.2 95.8 97.4 99.0 100.7 102.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 4 4 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 14. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 17. 27. 34. 41. 46. 52. 54. 52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 11. 19. 29. 35. 40. 46. 53. 56. 54. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 10/06/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 10/06/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED