* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * MARCO AL132008 10/07/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 67 71 73 74 75 72 69 64 59 53 50 V (KT) LAND 55 62 67 59 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 64 71 65 52 34 29 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 14 20 22 19 16 19 21 16 27 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 274 259 247 247 276 253 275 274 273 257 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 143 143 149 154 153 150 148 146 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 128 130 129 134 136 133 130 128 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 12 14 7 10 5 9 4 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 69 62 62 65 59 60 58 60 61 61 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 4 0 -15 -20 -44 -58 -54 -40 -51 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 10 -7 15 34 -24 11 -28 2 -19 32 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 110 79 42 -13 -70 -164 -280 -281 -257 -255 -224 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 24.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.7 96.3 97.1 97.8 99.2 100.5 100.6 100.4 100.3 100.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 4 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 9. 6. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 18. 19. 20. 17. 14. 9. 4. -2. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 12. 16. 18. 19. 20. 17. 14. 9. 4. -2. -5. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132008 MARCO 10/07/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132008 MARCO 10/07/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY