* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 10/07/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 31 34 42 52 58 60 71 75 77 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 31 34 42 52 58 60 71 75 77 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 29 31 34 36 38 SHEAR (KTS) 19 19 18 16 15 7 7 7 12 16 21 15 15 SHEAR DIR 52 44 32 29 39 76 83 104 71 111 81 118 94 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.7 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 147 147 150 153 155 154 155 159 163 167 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 8 6 8 5 7 6 9 8 12 700-500 MB RH 81 81 76 74 81 81 84 83 83 80 81 79 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 13 13 14 15 16 13 18 18 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 20 28 37 39 46 42 41 45 40 49 67 72 101 200 MB DIV 26 32 38 53 44 82 98 99 83 77 73 70 91 LAND (KM) 164 172 179 213 256 291 312 326 328 237 147 90 33 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.1 11.2 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.7 14.8 16.1 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 88.5 88.8 89.1 89.6 90.1 91.1 92.6 94.0 95.6 97.2 98.6 100.3 102.4 STM SPEED (KT) 0 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 27. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 6. 13. 14. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 6. 9. 18. 28. 36. 38. 47. 49. 51. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 6. 9. 17. 27. 33. 35. 46. 50. 52. 50. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 10/07/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 10/07/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED