* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * MARCO AL132008 10/07/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 61 62 62 62 60 58 55 53 51 49 V (KT) LAND 55 57 46 39 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 47 40 34 29 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 14 21 19 18 16 19 18 15 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 261 253 250 254 258 253 258 261 264 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 143 145 149 150 148 147 144 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 129 129 131 132 130 129 127 125 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 13 14 11 8 6 7 6 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 64 65 66 55 55 51 57 52 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 1 -14 -19 -19 -59 -55 -47 -39 -40 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 0 14 25 -2 -3 4 -9 6 -8 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 65 17 -29 -78 -126 -211 -217 -196 -197 -183 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.2 21.7 22.3 22.8 23.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.8 96.5 97.1 97.8 98.5 99.7 99.9 99.8 99.8 99.6 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 4 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132008 MARCO 10/07/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132008 MARCO 10/07/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY