* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/07/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 70 71 72 74 76 75 72 68 61 54 50 V (KT) LAND 65 67 70 71 72 74 76 75 72 68 61 54 48 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 69 70 71 73 74 76 76 73 70 66 59 SHEAR (KTS) 16 17 16 15 13 6 7 5 13 11 25 30 36 SHEAR DIR 108 123 131 122 155 150 164 172 189 212 223 217 213 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.5 28.1 29.5 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 150 150 148 146 142 138 138 145 159 171 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 8 7 7 4 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 58 62 60 61 59 56 53 50 41 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 16 15 14 14 14 13 12 12 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 78 79 76 75 64 52 47 40 33 0 16 19 69 200 MB DIV 29 21 24 36 24 12 13 7 29 10 26 7 7 LAND (KM) 468 496 513 536 567 633 647 576 476 340 200 32 67 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.4 17.2 18.1 19.3 20.8 22.5 24.0 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.1 106.8 107.5 108.2 108.8 110.1 111.3 112.1 112.5 112.4 112.1 111.4 110.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 3. -3. -10. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 10. 7. 3. -4. -11. -15. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/07/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/07/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY