* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 10/07/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 39 47 53 59 63 67 69 71 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 39 47 53 59 63 67 69 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 29 32 35 38 41 45 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 10 12 5 2 7 2 7 10 15 5 12 SHEAR DIR 36 30 13 6 36 325 128 138 129 59 106 101 131 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 147 147 149 154 154 154 156 159 161 162 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 8 6 8 6 8 7 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 82 79 76 79 83 79 83 80 80 76 79 79 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 36 45 51 57 48 43 36 29 32 47 58 60 200 MB DIV 35 30 38 63 89 116 96 125 90 93 53 86 63 LAND (KM) 104 150 196 228 259 296 316 363 322 249 216 212 197 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.4 11.2 11.1 10.9 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.8 13.7 14.6 15.5 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 87.7 88.1 88.5 89.1 89.7 91.0 92.7 94.4 96.2 97.9 99.7 101.7 103.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 6 6 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 813 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 14. 22. 30. 36. 39. 40. 42. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 6. 14. 22. 28. 34. 38. 42. 44. 46. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 10/07/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 10/07/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY