* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/07/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 67 69 73 74 73 68 63 53 48 42 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 67 69 73 74 73 68 63 53 47 36 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 66 67 68 70 72 74 73 69 65 52 48 SHEAR (KTS) 15 15 14 12 6 5 2 7 9 18 25 34 41 SHEAR DIR 113 128 124 159 180 138 281 190 191 194 210 208 228 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.1 27.4 28.6 30.5 31.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 151 151 149 147 143 137 133 137 150 171 172 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 1 700-500 MB RH 58 59 59 60 61 58 60 54 52 47 42 38 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 84 83 77 71 64 53 40 34 6 18 16 42 42 200 MB DIV 19 27 48 29 8 29 0 -2 2 17 11 24 18 LAND (KM) 492 503 524 559 605 671 582 506 423 305 131 7 -49 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.9 18.0 19.1 20.3 21.7 23.2 24.9 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.4 108.1 108.9 109.6 110.9 112.0 112.7 113.0 112.7 111.9 110.7 109.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 8 9 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 0. -4. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -5. -9. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 9. 10. 9. 4. -1. -10. -16. -21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 9. 8. 3. -2. -12. -17. -23. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/07/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/07/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED