* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/07/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 81 83 84 87 86 80 74 65 55 48 43 V (KT) LAND 75 79 81 83 84 87 86 80 74 65 55 41 40 V (KT) LGE mod 75 79 81 83 84 85 85 82 77 70 64 49 50 SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 11 8 6 6 4 12 16 27 32 41 39 SHEAR DIR 126 121 151 157 139 139 130 190 204 205 204 215 209 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.3 26.8 27.1 28.8 30.3 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 149 148 145 141 136 131 134 152 167 170 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 60 57 56 54 51 47 47 41 37 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 11 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 87 82 74 69 66 55 49 26 27 31 36 81 70 200 MB DIV 27 37 28 0 19 14 15 7 8 27 7 45 18 LAND (KM) 553 574 606 647 692 674 602 526 431 281 91 -7 85 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 16.0 16.3 17.1 18.1 19.3 20.9 22.4 23.8 25.0 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.4 109.1 109.9 110.7 111.9 112.7 113.3 113.6 113.2 112.0 111.0 110.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -10. -15. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 9. 4. -1. -9. -19. -27. -32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 11. 5. -1. -10. -20. -27. -32. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/07/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/07/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED