* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 10/07/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 43 51 57 60 64 67 69 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 43 51 57 48 38 32 29 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 31 29 28 27 33 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 8 11 5 1 4 10 13 10 11 9 17 SHEAR DIR 18 14 322 309 301 209 78 146 192 135 147 175 179 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 150 153 158 158 157 160 164 167 169 173 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 9 6 8 7 8 9 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 79 81 82 81 79 83 77 78 73 74 72 68 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 61 68 62 56 58 43 30 39 62 71 69 44 200 MB DIV 47 70 90 104 119 88 90 96 117 72 55 29 48 LAND (KM) 104 142 177 143 135 115 150 67 -20 -20 -44 -25 156 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.9 12.2 13.1 14.1 15.2 16.2 17.2 18.4 19.7 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 87.6 88.1 88.6 89.3 89.9 91.8 93.8 95.8 98.0 100.3 102.6 104.9 107.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 6 7 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 18. 26. 33. 37. 40. 41. 43. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 10. 18. 26. 32. 35. 39. 42. 44. 45. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 10/07/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 10/07/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY