* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/08/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 100 102 103 101 96 87 75 63 53 42 31 V (KT) LAND 90 96 100 102 103 101 96 87 75 63 45 35 30 V (KT) LGE mod 90 97 100 102 102 99 93 85 76 68 51 50 33 SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 6 3 5 4 7 14 19 27 38 45 58 SHEAR DIR 99 128 146 114 105 111 170 215 211 216 210 236 232 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.8 26.9 28.1 30.0 30.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 147 146 143 137 131 133 145 165 172 166 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 5 5 0 2 700-500 MB RH 55 58 58 56 52 54 49 49 44 39 35 30 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 14 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 80 74 73 69 56 54 41 26 28 27 51 58 30 200 MB DIV 31 27 14 31 23 10 9 4 9 9 18 1 13 LAND (KM) 568 615 668 699 695 638 582 487 309 104 -40 -3 -165 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.7 18.8 20.3 22.2 23.9 25.5 27.3 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.4 110.2 110.9 111.5 112.6 113.5 113.8 113.4 112.6 111.4 110.4 109.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 432 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 2. -1. -8. -16. -25. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 12. 12. 11. 6. -3. -14. -26. -36. -48. -58. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 10. 13. 13. 11. 6. -3. -15. -27. -37. -48. -59. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/08/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/08/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY