* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 10/08/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 51 63 67 72 73 70 72 73 70 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 51 63 67 72 73 70 72 73 70 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 40 44 48 52 55 59 63 67 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 12 8 7 8 11 14 14 12 18 15 15 SHEAR DIR 73 41 23 71 70 88 94 99 87 98 76 89 100 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 153 156 159 157 157 159 163 165 165 161 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -53.5 -52.6 -53.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 9 9 6 9 6 9 7 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 83 84 82 77 80 80 79 78 75 74 71 67 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 11 12 13 14 12 12 11 8 9 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 54 67 61 53 56 48 35 37 33 50 58 41 40 200 MB DIV 76 75 75 99 74 82 66 76 45 54 63 14 17 LAND (KM) 142 161 154 154 155 156 228 105 72 99 133 176 293 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.2 12.5 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.8 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 88.1 88.8 89.4 90.2 91.0 92.9 94.8 96.6 98.5 100.5 102.8 105.5 108.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 13 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 5. 7. 5. 1. 2. 3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 19. 31. 35. 41. 43. 40. 41. 42. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 15. 21. 33. 37. 42. 43. 40. 42. 43. 40. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 10/08/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 87.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 10/08/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED