* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/08/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 107 111 112 112 108 97 86 74 62 51 35 19 V (KT) LAND 100 107 111 112 112 108 97 86 74 54 46 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 100 107 111 111 109 102 93 83 74 57 53 36 29 SHEAR (KTS) 7 5 3 4 4 4 14 18 23 30 48 54 68 SHEAR DIR 111 114 107 90 99 133 188 198 207 212 224 227 238 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.6 26.9 26.8 27.8 29.8 30.9 30.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 146 144 139 132 131 142 163 172 167 136 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 6 5 1 2 0 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 53 52 51 51 46 41 41 37 39 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 13 11 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 76 74 77 63 61 60 40 39 31 47 82 32 31 200 MB DIV 5 1 14 8 15 25 12 16 33 27 14 22 37 LAND (KM) 624 660 699 676 652 600 500 364 160 -50 34 -168 -441 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.4 20.0 21.7 23.4 25.2 27.0 29.0 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.3 111.0 111.6 112.2 113.2 113.7 113.5 112.7 111.6 110.6 109.3 107.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. -20. -20. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. 2. 0. -4. -13. -24. -36. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 12. 12. 9. 6. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -6. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 13. 13. 9. -1. -12. -25. -36. -47. -64. -79. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 11. 12. 12. 8. -3. -14. -26. -38. -49. -65. -81. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/08/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/08/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY