* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 10/08/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 47 53 62 70 73 73 73 71 71 72 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 47 53 62 70 58 41 32 29 30 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 42 47 42 33 29 28 31 37 SHEAR (KTS) 5 8 6 7 7 8 10 8 11 6 9 5 11 SHEAR DIR 67 24 75 50 74 60 85 68 89 60 102 115 185 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.6 30.0 30.2 30.8 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 156 158 158 157 159 161 166 168 173 172 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 9 9 7 9 7 9 9 10 11 12 9 700-500 MB RH 85 82 76 79 81 76 80 74 75 71 70 69 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 12 13 13 12 12 11 9 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 64 65 59 63 60 43 41 26 44 30 43 31 56 200 MB DIV 79 81 105 92 84 78 56 55 43 47 24 31 33 LAND (KM) 155 129 130 139 125 158 87 -27 -51 -45 -83 68 127 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.2 17.2 18.3 19.6 21.3 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 88.6 89.3 90.0 90.9 91.8 93.8 95.8 97.7 99.6 101.7 103.8 106.1 108.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 20. 28. 36. 40. 41. 42. 40. 40. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 17. 23. 32. 40. 44. 43. 43. 41. 41. 42. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 10/08/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 5.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 10/08/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY