* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/08/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 114 115 114 112 103 93 81 71 58 41 24 DIS V (KT) LAND 110 114 115 114 112 103 93 81 63 53 36 30 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 110 114 115 113 109 101 91 82 75 61 42 31 28 SHEAR (KTS) 5 3 5 4 6 10 14 16 22 33 49 60 78 SHEAR DIR 88 90 83 74 94 136 192 194 223 220 228 231 243 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.9 27.4 29.5 31.0 30.7 29.1 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 146 145 143 138 133 138 160 171 171 157 101 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 0 3 0 700-500 MB RH 59 56 53 56 56 53 52 49 45 38 32 32 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 17 17 17 17 17 16 14 10 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 81 68 67 62 54 32 39 54 76 84 59 27 200 MB DIV 9 24 24 26 24 20 14 43 32 9 -7 4 22 LAND (KM) 661 700 698 663 633 548 427 240 -7 65 -127 -336 -624 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.9 20.7 22.7 24.7 26.5 28.0 30.0 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.9 111.6 112.1 112.5 113.1 113.4 112.9 111.7 110.4 109.3 108.0 106.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 8 10 11 11 10 10 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -15. -21. -24. -24. -25. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -18. -29. -44. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 9. 9. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -9. -15. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 7. 6. -1. -12. -24. -35. -48. -66. -83.-102. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 5. 4. 2. -7. -17. -29. -39. -52. -69. -86.-106. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/08/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/08/08 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED