* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 10/08/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 57 64 67 66 67 61 65 66 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 57 64 67 66 67 61 65 66 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 44 48 52 56 57 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 10 7 7 12 14 14 16 20 19 22 16 SHEAR DIR 29 50 60 77 84 81 100 100 98 89 105 117 121 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 155 158 159 157 158 160 165 166 165 161 151 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -53.2 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 9 7 6 9 6 10 7 12 10 10 6 700-500 MB RH 82 79 81 82 81 79 78 74 73 68 67 63 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 13 13 12 13 12 11 11 7 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 69 61 61 61 55 42 33 25 37 62 50 57 40 200 MB DIV 83 92 78 60 66 53 66 43 41 36 4 42 22 LAND (KM) 144 124 119 108 108 200 83 50 86 84 132 286 371 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.4 14.2 15.0 15.8 16.4 17.3 18.2 19.0 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 88.9 89.7 90.4 91.4 92.4 94.6 96.6 98.7 100.9 103.1 105.4 108.0 110.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 2. 1. 2. -4. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 21. 29. 32. 34. 35. 30. 33. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 27. 34. 37. 36. 37. 31. 35. 36. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 10/08/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 71% is 5.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 10/08/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED