* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/08/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 117 114 111 98 87 77 64 47 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 117 117 114 111 98 87 77 61 39 31 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 117 115 112 107 97 87 80 69 47 33 29 27 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 5 7 8 16 13 20 28 53 62 78 83 SHEAR DIR 110 96 101 103 109 180 184 211 206 222 227 234 224 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.1 27.1 28.5 30.7 30.2 26.2 20.4 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 143 140 134 135 150 173 170 128 68 64 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 52 55 54 52 52 46 42 36 32 32 39 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 17 18 17 17 15 11 7 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 66 64 57 59 44 42 49 74 98 26 -6 -52 200 MB DIV 13 22 22 20 24 16 33 34 -3 -8 13 12 30 LAND (KM) 703 694 666 633 608 485 349 130 30 -200 -568 -926 -999 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.2 19.8 21.4 23.4 25.6 28.4 31.5 34.4 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.5 112.0 112.5 113.0 113.3 113.0 112.1 110.7 108.6 106.3 103.9 100.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 12 15 18 18 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -19. -24. -25. -26. -30. -39. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -7. -17. -31. -49. -66. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -9. -13. -19. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 2. -1. -13. -23. -34. -48. -65. -90.-119.-142. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 2. -1. -4. -17. -28. -38. -51. -68. -93.-121.-145. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/08/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/08/08 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY