* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * SIXTEEN EP162008 10/08/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 44 49 60 66 65 67 62 63 64 61 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 44 49 60 66 65 67 62 63 64 61 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 34 37 40 43 46 51 56 60 63 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 10 6 5 14 14 18 15 17 16 14 12 SHEAR DIR 76 78 103 88 91 102 88 96 97 103 107 101 91 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 158 158 157 156 159 162 165 166 165 162 150 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 8 7 9 9 11 11 11 10 8 700-500 MB RH 81 84 85 80 77 81 76 76 70 72 66 64 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 12 12 11 13 13 10 11 7 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 59 56 57 51 43 45 25 36 55 74 41 52 23 200 MB DIV 117 97 64 61 85 68 86 48 46 30 33 3 24 LAND (KM) 193 187 182 201 251 167 89 77 68 53 114 280 392 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.3 14.2 15.2 16.1 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.1 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 90.5 91.4 92.2 93.3 94.3 96.3 98.1 100.0 101.8 103.6 105.7 108.0 110.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 453 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 17. 23. 29. 33. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 1. -2. -1. -6. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 23. 29. 30. 33. 29. 31. 31. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 14. 19. 30. 36. 35. 37. 32. 33. 34. 31. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 SIXTEEN 10/08/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 SIXTEEN 10/08/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY