* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/09/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 111 108 103 91 78 66 51 29 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 114 111 108 103 91 78 58 44 32 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 113 109 104 99 87 77 62 51 34 29 27 29 SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 9 11 14 17 21 27 40 65 76 82 75 SHEAR DIR 96 122 129 124 134 169 170 211 215 229 232 234 235 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.9 27.4 29.9 31.0 28.2 21.1 18.6 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 139 136 132 139 166 174 150 75 64 65 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -53.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 0 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 54 54 50 51 49 44 44 39 39 43 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 19 19 18 18 17 13 9 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 64 63 56 40 49 61 80 59 12 -34 -24 200 MB DIV 25 27 29 26 17 28 49 27 20 2 18 30 -3 LAND (KM) 687 649 618 577 543 436 250 -41 -74 -438 -816 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.1 20.7 22.6 25.0 27.4 30.5 33.8 37.0 40.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.1 112.6 113.0 113.3 113.5 112.9 111.4 109.4 107.1 104.9 102.5 99.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 9 11 14 17 19 19 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -21. -23. -24. -27. -35. -45. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -20. -32. -50. -69. -86. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -15. -19. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -11. -22. -35. -47. -62. -84.-114.-144.-166. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -4. -7. -12. -24. -37. -49. -64. -86.-116.-145.-168. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/09/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/09/08 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY