* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * SIXTEEN EP162008 10/09/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 44 50 59 61 64 57 52 47 48 50 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 44 50 59 61 64 57 52 47 48 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 37 39 41 43 45 48 49 50 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 8 8 18 15 18 18 26 20 30 29 26 SHEAR DIR 88 92 69 63 66 63 59 69 70 63 56 57 42 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 157 156 155 155 157 159 161 162 164 163 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -53.2 -52.5 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 6 9 8 11 9 12 9 13 700-500 MB RH 85 84 83 79 81 83 81 81 76 73 71 64 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 14 12 13 13 11 11 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 45 39 29 22 21 14 24 34 27 42 24 6 200 MB DIV 117 70 47 85 77 64 52 37 10 1 -7 -18 -8 LAND (KM) 204 204 207 231 267 215 145 105 106 103 100 100 122 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 91.4 92.1 92.8 93.6 94.4 95.8 97.0 98.3 99.5 100.6 101.6 102.8 104.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 446 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. -1. 0. -6. -9. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 23. 26. 29. 24. 20. 16. 16. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 10. 14. 20. 29. 31. 34. 27. 22. 17. 18. 20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 SIXTEEN 10/09/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 SIXTEEN 10/09/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY