* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/09/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 103 96 89 83 73 63 54 42 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 103 96 89 83 73 63 51 34 29 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 110 104 99 94 88 79 72 60 38 30 28 29 30 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 9 12 11 14 22 34 53 68 95 87 35 SHEAR DIR 110 129 125 130 159 178 196 219 223 226 226 219 233 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.8 27.9 30.8 29.2 22.2 18.6 16.9 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 139 135 134 132 145 175 161 87 64 64 64 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -53.4 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 49 50 50 44 44 39 41 52 52 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 18 16 12 11 7 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 65 60 60 51 40 40 43 76 72 11 -13 -8 -23 200 MB DIV 32 16 17 8 20 15 41 26 7 46 42 38 15 LAND (KM) 663 632 609 570 538 395 149 76 -350 -787 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.5 21.4 23.5 26.4 29.6 33.2 36.7 40.1 43.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 112.7 113.2 113.5 113.7 113.6 112.7 110.6 107.5 105.0 103.3 101.2 98.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 8 10 14 19 21 20 19 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -18. -19. -20. -28. -39. -48. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -13. -22. -37. -61. -85. -94. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -9. -13. -17. -19. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -19. -26. -35. -46. -60. -88.-125.-158.-170. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -10. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -10. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -14. -21. -27. -37. -47. -56. -68. -95.-131.-164.-176. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/09/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/09/08 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY