* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * SIXTEEN EP162008 10/09/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 53 56 57 53 49 46 47 48 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 53 56 57 53 49 46 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 37 40 43 45 48 50 51 52 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 9 15 13 12 19 17 22 24 29 28 30 SHEAR DIR 88 92 67 73 65 61 74 63 61 53 59 64 53 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 156 155 156 158 159 162 162 162 163 162 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 9 9 7 8 8 10 9 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 84 82 78 79 81 79 82 77 77 73 72 63 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 14 13 12 10 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 37 26 18 23 11 19 20 20 23 47 -2 4 200 MB DIV 73 54 72 74 74 85 51 17 6 17 1 9 8 LAND (KM) 199 213 245 269 227 164 135 140 132 137 133 126 167 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 92.6 93.3 94.0 94.7 95.4 96.8 98.2 99.6 100.8 101.9 102.6 103.9 105.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 32. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 23. 24. 22. 18. 15. 16. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 23. 27. 27. 23. 19. 16. 17. 18. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 SIXTEEN 10/09/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 SIXTEEN 10/09/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED