* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/09/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 93 87 82 77 69 61 54 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 93 87 82 77 69 61 46 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 93 88 82 78 70 65 58 35 29 27 28 29 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 12 9 11 18 23 33 56 70 85 80 44 SHEAR DIR 111 126 135 159 186 190 209 216 229 231 229 221 232 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 27.5 29.2 31.1 28.8 22.0 18.8 17.1 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 137 134 132 139 158 174 156 85 64 64 64 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 8 5 6 1 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 49 51 51 47 47 42 41 53 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 17 17 16 14 11 9 6 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 55 48 35 28 39 47 71 35 2 9 25 78 200 MB DIV 12 18 0 19 14 32 36 27 15 33 47 48 45 LAND (KM) 623 606 598 538 487 251 37 -12 -414 -815 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.5 20.3 22.5 24.3 26.9 30.0 33.3 36.5 39.7 42.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.1 113.6 113.7 113.8 112.8 111.8 109.7 107.0 104.7 103.1 101.1 98.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 10 11 13 18 19 18 18 18 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -11. -12. -20. -30. -39. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -23. -37. -58. -77. -89. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -20. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -20. -28. -35. -43. -59. -85.-119.-144.-158. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -13. -18. -23. -31. -39. -46. -62. -88.-122.-147.-160. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/09/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/09/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED