* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ODILE EP162008 10/09/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 57 61 66 70 72 70 67 64 63 60 59 V (KT) LAND 45 52 57 61 66 70 72 70 67 64 63 60 59 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 56 61 64 69 72 74 76 77 79 79 79 SHEAR (KTS) 13 10 15 17 14 19 15 19 19 19 21 23 21 SHEAR DIR 92 87 79 77 93 75 87 73 73 57 42 50 60 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 154 155 156 159 161 162 160 160 159 158 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 9 8 11 9 12 9 12 10 700-500 MB RH 83 78 80 82 82 81 76 75 75 72 71 66 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 11 11 9 8 6 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 33 25 16 20 17 16 14 20 12 36 32 34 20 200 MB DIV 57 56 63 57 53 68 19 33 -4 35 7 16 -3 LAND (KM) 285 321 298 261 244 207 178 168 180 191 206 221 272 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.2 15.1 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.8 95.5 96.3 97.0 98.5 100.0 101.6 103.1 104.4 105.3 106.4 107.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 391 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 19. 23. 25. 24. 22. 19. 18. 14. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 12. 16. 21. 25. 27. 25. 22. 19. 18. 15. 14. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 ODILE 10/09/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 ODILE 10/09/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED