* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/09/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 69 60 54 48 39 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 69 60 54 48 39 30 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 70 64 60 56 51 46 42 32 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 7 10 10 8 11 19 23 38 55 59 74 90 67 SHEAR DIR 116 132 159 176 177 189 199 214 223 233 234 238 246 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 28.8 31.0 30.1 27.2 21.5 19.6 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 133 131 133 153 173 168 138 78 61 60 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -53.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 48 47 46 41 39 43 42 44 44 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 17 16 15 11 8 7 6 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 55 47 34 31 31 41 104 63 42 17 -47 -91 200 MB DIV 16 -9 11 24 24 34 30 19 27 0 60 29 4 LAND (KM) 627 605 589 538 495 320 99 70 -231 -510 -871 -937 -999 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.6 20.3 22.1 23.6 25.8 28.5 31.1 33.6 35.5 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.2 113.6 113.8 113.9 113.4 111.9 110.3 108.3 106.7 104.2 101.9 101.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 10 12 15 15 16 15 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -2. -1. -3. -9. -17. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -18. -30. -46. -66. -80. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -16. -17. -16. -14. -12. -9. -8. -7. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -14. -15. -19. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -19. -23. -29. -38. -46. -55. -68. -93.-119.-135. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -11. -8. -6. -5. -6. -6. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -12. -10. -8. -7. -6. -6. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -11. -20. -26. -32. -41. -50. -56. -63. -75. -99.-125.-142. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/09/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/09/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY