* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ODILE EP162008 10/09/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 63 67 72 69 70 68 66 65 63 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 63 67 72 69 70 68 66 65 63 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 56 59 64 69 75 79 82 84 84 83 SHEAR (KTS) 10 15 13 13 10 17 12 19 15 18 22 24 19 SHEAR DIR 81 80 76 84 75 83 81 81 63 85 64 78 84 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 156 157 158 161 163 163 162 162 162 161 159 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 78 79 81 82 81 79 78 71 72 73 64 61 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 13 13 11 9 9 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 14 17 16 14 16 20 38 36 46 33 38 7 200 MB DIV 67 74 69 75 72 37 32 31 43 11 13 -6 -7 LAND (KM) 304 261 226 193 161 147 137 123 122 137 164 219 285 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.5 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.7 96.6 97.5 98.4 100.2 101.9 103.3 104.3 105.3 106.3 107.3 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 10 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -7. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 18. 23. 28. 25. 27. 24. 22. 20. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 18. 22. 27. 24. 25. 23. 21. 20. 18. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 ODILE 10/09/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 ODILE 10/09/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY