* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/10/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 73 68 64 59 51 43 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 73 68 64 59 51 43 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 73 68 64 60 54 48 39 31 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 8 9 11 14 15 18 23 44 54 51 61 57 48 SHEAR DIR 134 184 196 186 170 207 206 215 219 226 225 238 246 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.8 30.7 31.0 30.2 29.1 27.9 27.4 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 132 132 132 143 172 171 166 154 141 134 127 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -52.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 0 4 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 45 50 48 46 39 40 37 42 45 45 44 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 20 20 20 18 14 10 6 4 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 54 39 35 33 31 31 74 103 74 69 51 48 0 200 MB DIV -16 13 19 25 29 46 15 19 25 2 12 4 0 LAND (KM) 576 529 492 429 365 171 40 -56 -219 -355 -491 -557 -532 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.8 21.6 23.3 25.5 27.2 28.4 29.7 30.6 30.9 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.4 113.6 113.5 113.4 112.7 110.6 109.4 108.4 107.5 106.5 105.9 106.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 11 13 9 8 7 5 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -23. -33. -44. -55. -62. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -7. -13. -18. -22. -22. -22. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -14. -18. -25. -33. -47. -60. -75. -88.-100.-105. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -12. -16. -21. -29. -37. -50. -63. -78. -90.-103.-108. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/10/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/10/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY