* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ODILE EP162008 10/10/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 54 58 57 53 54 53 53 54 57 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 54 58 57 53 54 53 53 54 57 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 47 48 50 54 59 63 66 70 73 77 SHEAR (KTS) 17 14 13 14 16 11 19 21 22 18 21 12 11 SHEAR DIR 72 70 79 80 73 85 79 85 83 75 75 66 61 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 156 158 159 163 164 163 163 164 166 168 167 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 9 10 8 11 10 13 10 13 9 10 700-500 MB RH 80 82 81 79 79 78 72 72 68 65 61 56 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 9 10 9 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 19 10 4 0 11 35 44 49 26 42 38 39 200 MB DIV 72 63 65 69 62 33 35 30 21 -28 6 -6 3 LAND (KM) 242 208 197 169 163 137 144 118 108 109 97 156 237 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.4 19.2 19.8 20.5 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.5 97.4 98.3 99.2 100.9 102.6 104.1 105.3 106.1 106.4 107.2 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 6 4 4 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -6. -12. -12. -11. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 13. 10. 11. 9. 8. 10. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 12. 8. 9. 8. 8. 9. 12. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 ODILE 10/10/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 ODILE 10/10/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY