* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 10/10/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 44 50 53 55 55 54 52 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 44 50 53 55 55 54 52 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 38 39 40 40 39 37 SHEAR (KTS) 9 14 17 18 17 18 17 16 21 21 26 28 30 SHEAR DIR 229 226 224 230 234 241 233 241 232 208 229 226 240 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 152 150 146 143 141 141 140 135 133 131 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 156 153 149 144 138 134 134 132 126 123 121 121 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 65 65 64 65 63 65 61 62 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 45 49 49 51 55 47 53 47 44 43 33 21 21 200 MB DIV 50 35 44 63 71 37 54 30 44 31 33 21 10 LAND (KM) 1580 1583 1596 1621 1653 1633 1588 1547 1521 1534 1569 1634 1709 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.7 16.7 17.9 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 34.0 35.0 36.0 36.9 37.7 39.1 40.2 41.4 42.6 43.7 44.5 45.3 46.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 48 39 26 22 23 25 27 31 31 32 28 30 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 24. 29. 31. 32. 31. 29. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 19. 25. 28. 30. 30. 29. 27. 24. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 10/10/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 10/10/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY